1 00:00:10,959 --> 00:00:08,709 yeah so welcome thanks for having me my 2 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:10,969 name is Mustafa I'm a doctoral student 3 00:00:17,050 --> 00:00:14,570 at LMU Munich unfortunately there won't 4 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:17,060 be any flying objects in my talk so 5 00:00:23,230 --> 00:00:20,930 please don't be disappointed still will 6 00:00:26,050 --> 00:00:23,240 be I'll still talk about the question 7 00:00:28,510 --> 00:00:26,060 whether the mind can influence the 8 00:00:29,980 --> 00:00:28,520 physical surroundings and I've been 9 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:29,990 doing research on this topic for the 10 00:00:34,930 --> 00:00:31,850 last three years and in unique Germany 11 00:00:37,180 --> 00:00:34,940 in my hometown at the University and I 12 00:00:40,690 --> 00:00:37,190 have found an answer in the last three 13 00:00:43,900 --> 00:00:40,700 years and that is you can influence it 14 00:00:45,069 --> 00:00:43,910 sometimes when you were a smoker and I'd 15 00:00:47,650 --> 00:00:45,079 like to show you in the next 20 minutes 16 00:00:49,450 --> 00:00:47,660 what I mean by that before we jump right 17 00:00:51,069 --> 00:00:49,460 into the minds of smokers and 18 00:00:52,930 --> 00:00:51,079 non-smokers I'd like to talk about the 19 00:00:56,049 --> 00:00:52,940 relationship of mind and metaphor bit in 20 00:00:57,819 --> 00:00:56,059 general so most would agree that the 21 00:00:59,500 --> 00:00:57,829 world as we experience it seems to 22 00:01:03,549 --> 00:00:59,510 comprise two distinct elements the 23 00:01:05,770 --> 00:01:03,559 physical world and the mental world and 24 00:01:07,270 --> 00:01:05,780 there are different ideas though if and 25 00:01:09,399 --> 00:01:07,280 how these two worlds interact with each 26 00:01:12,249 --> 00:01:09,409 other so there's interaction as dualism 27 00:01:13,809 --> 00:01:12,259 that says physical causally interacts 28 00:01:15,190 --> 00:01:13,819 with the mental and the mental does with 29 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:15,200 the physical and this goes pretty well 30 00:01:19,149 --> 00:01:17,810 with our day to day experience both 31 00:01:22,179 --> 00:01:19,159 these interactions are very hard to 32 00:01:24,249 --> 00:01:22,189 prove though so how can unique phenomena 33 00:01:26,769 --> 00:01:24,259 check phenomenological experience like 34 00:01:30,639 --> 00:01:26,779 certain color for example can be 35 00:01:33,129 --> 00:01:30,649 explained by purely physical processing 36 00:01:34,899 --> 00:01:33,139 and this is such a hard problem to solve 37 00:01:36,519 --> 00:01:34,909 they became known as a hard problem of 38 00:01:38,169 --> 00:01:36,529 consciousness center yeah we heard 39 00:01:42,429 --> 00:01:38,179 already heard something about that I 40 00:01:46,359 --> 00:01:42,439 think two days ago the other way around 41 00:01:47,830 --> 00:01:46,369 is by no means easier to explain so the 42 00:01:51,039 --> 00:01:47,840 influence of the mental world to the 43 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:51,049 physical world it's hard to to think of 44 00:01:56,379 --> 00:01:52,810 a place where this could happen and 45 00:01:57,999 --> 00:01:56,389 that's why there's other ideas of the 46 00:02:00,449 --> 00:01:58,009 interaction of those two worlds for 47 00:02:02,679 --> 00:02:00,459 example epiphenomenalism and that gets 48 00:02:04,899 --> 00:02:02,689 consequently gets rid of this connection 49 00:02:07,269 --> 00:02:04,909 and this is basically the typical view 50 00:02:09,490 --> 00:02:07,279 of most modern science so it states that 51 00:02:11,770 --> 00:02:09,500 the female phenomenological experience 52 00:02:14,710 --> 00:02:11,780 is just a byproduct of the physical 53 00:02:16,780 --> 00:02:14,720 working and that all causation can be 54 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:16,790 reduced to fundamental physics so no 55 00:02:20,589 --> 00:02:18,290 influence at all 56 00:02:22,330 --> 00:02:20,599 and if this were to be true one might 57 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:22,340 ask what about free will what about 58 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:24,170 morality if the mental world has no 59 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:26,810 influence at all and still the hard 60 00:02:31,149 --> 00:02:28,250 problem of consciousness is a problem 61 00:02:34,059 --> 00:02:31,159 here as well so there's yet another idea 62 00:02:35,770 --> 00:02:34,069 it's psychophysical parallelism and this 63 00:02:38,830 --> 00:02:35,780 gets rid of all problems that are caused 64 00:02:40,569 --> 00:02:38,840 by explaining causality since the two 65 00:02:45,819 --> 00:02:40,579 worlds don't interact with it with 66 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:45,829 another at all so they are as Leibniz 67 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:47,810 would put it like two parallel clocks 68 00:02:52,569 --> 00:02:49,730 that lead to events being perfectly 69 00:02:54,839 --> 00:02:52,579 synchronized and the reason for that for 70 00:02:58,270 --> 00:02:54,849 Leibniz was a pre-established harmony 71 00:02:59,860 --> 00:02:58,280 created by God there might be another 72 00:03:01,960 --> 00:02:59,870 explanation though and that is the third 73 00:03:03,729 --> 00:03:01,970 underlying world that interacts with 74 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:03,739 both the mental and the physical world 75 00:03:10,420 --> 00:03:08,810 and this could be the quantum world so 76 00:03:12,610 --> 00:03:10,430 what do we know of the quantum world and 77 00:03:14,679 --> 00:03:12,620 how could it be that it interacts both 78 00:03:17,500 --> 00:03:14,689 the mental and the classical physical 79 00:03:19,780 --> 00:03:17,510 world quantum theory possesses a number 80 00:03:21,190 --> 00:03:19,790 of very strange properties and I only 81 00:03:24,099 --> 00:03:21,200 have time to go into one of them and 82 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:24,109 that superposition and this is can be 83 00:03:28,930 --> 00:03:26,090 seen here so this is a visualization of 84 00:03:30,250 --> 00:03:28,940 the double slit experiment experiment 85 00:03:33,219 --> 00:03:30,260 that's the most famous quantum 86 00:03:36,909 --> 00:03:33,229 experiment and in it a single particles 87 00:03:40,420 --> 00:03:36,919 like photons or electrons a shot at a at 88 00:03:46,270 --> 00:03:40,430 a plate with two slits and what happens 89 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:46,280 is that that you can see certain pattern 90 00:03:51,550 --> 00:03:49,370 behind the behind the plate so they form 91 00:03:54,069 --> 00:03:51,560 a interference pattern and this means 92 00:03:55,990 --> 00:03:54,079 that the photon must pass both slits at 93 00:03:58,629 --> 00:03:56,000 the same time it's a few with itself and 94 00:04:00,670 --> 00:03:58,639 this is what's called a superposition so 95 00:04:02,289 --> 00:04:00,680 it's it's different different states 96 00:04:04,390 --> 00:04:02,299 it has different states at the same time 97 00:04:06,879 --> 00:04:04,400 and in this case it's at different 98 00:04:08,020 --> 00:04:06,889 places at the same time and what's even 99 00:04:10,059 --> 00:04:08,030 more surprising is that this 100 00:04:12,009 --> 00:04:10,069 superposition vanishes when you measure 101 00:04:13,689 --> 00:04:12,019 the path of the particle so in that case 102 00:04:15,610 --> 00:04:13,699 it goes either to the top slit or 103 00:04:19,149 --> 00:04:15,620 through the bottom slit and just appears 104 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:19,159 behind those slits and what's unclear to 105 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:20,930 this point is what constitutes a 106 00:04:24,100 --> 00:04:22,849 measurement on other words at what point 107 00:04:26,379 --> 00:04:24,110 of this interaction with environment 108 00:04:29,019 --> 00:04:26,389 does this transition from the super post 109 00:04:30,300 --> 00:04:29,029 quantum states to a single classical 110 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:30,310 state take place 111 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:32,170 is that when a camera is directed at 112 00:04:38,490 --> 00:04:34,930 slits on computers processing the path 113 00:04:43,140 --> 00:04:38,500 or is it a conscious processing of the 114 00:04:45,420 --> 00:04:43,150 way the of the weight of the result that 115 00:04:46,620 --> 00:04:45,430 has taken place and this is a discussion 116 00:04:50,330 --> 00:04:46,630 held under the name of the Heisenberg 117 00:04:53,340 --> 00:04:50,340 cut and there's still no no answer to it 118 00:04:55,170 --> 00:04:53,350 so what we know is there a lot of 119 00:04:56,700 --> 00:04:55,180 different interpretations though the 120 00:04:59,700 --> 00:04:56,710 deal with this measurement problem and 121 00:05:01,380 --> 00:04:59,710 some of them put more emphasis on the 122 00:05:02,730 --> 00:05:01,390 mental aspects and unconsciousness in 123 00:05:06,090 --> 00:05:02,740 particular like those I've highlighted 124 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:06,100 here and that means there is at least 125 00:05:10,620 --> 00:05:08,530 one solution to this quantum mechanical 126 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:10,630 measurement problem problem that can 127 00:05:16,290 --> 00:05:12,010 explain this perfect synchronicity 128 00:05:18,060 --> 00:05:16,300 between those two worlds and that would 129 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:18,070 be that measurement is the conscious 130 00:05:23,250 --> 00:05:22,090 processing of quantum information and if 131 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:23,260 this is true this would mean definitely 132 00:05:26,940 --> 00:05:24,250 several things 133 00:05:29,850 --> 00:05:26,950 this would mean superposition is still 134 00:05:31,410 --> 00:05:29,860 maintained in subconscious subconscious 135 00:05:32,730 --> 00:05:31,420 processing would therefore have much 136 00:05:34,470 --> 00:05:32,740 more information at hand would be 137 00:05:35,700 --> 00:05:34,480 uncompelled lee more effective than 138 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:35,710 conscious processing and this is 139 00:05:40,530 --> 00:05:37,810 something we know to be true as a 140 00:05:42,630 --> 00:05:40,540 psychologist and since quantum 141 00:05:44,970 --> 00:05:42,640 information has no arrow of time this 142 00:05:47,010 --> 00:05:44,980 would explain how sub con subconscious 143 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:47,020 anticipation of future whence events 144 00:05:51,210 --> 00:05:49,930 would be possible so precognition and 145 00:05:53,660 --> 00:05:51,220 premonition could be explained by this 146 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:53,670 and the result of the measurement 147 00:05:58,730 --> 00:05:56,170 originates in the observer and this 148 00:06:00,810 --> 00:05:58,740 leaves room for an subjective influence 149 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:00,820 for an subjective element for an 150 00:06:05,910 --> 00:06:02,530 influence on which of the super force 151 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:05,920 state becomes real and this leads us to 152 00:06:12,030 --> 00:06:10,210 micro psychokinesis micro PK's is 153 00:06:15,690 --> 00:06:12,040 researching the mental influences on 154 00:06:18,030 --> 00:06:15,700 inanimate probabilistic systems and it 155 00:06:20,780 --> 00:06:18,040 can only be observed where statistical 156 00:06:24,330 --> 00:06:20,790 means so not not with the naked eye and 157 00:06:26,100 --> 00:06:24,340 usually it's it's just the influence on 158 00:06:28,460 --> 00:06:26,110 random number generator or dice as we 159 00:06:31,500 --> 00:06:28,470 had heard before and there's great 160 00:06:33,690 --> 00:06:31,510 remarkable results we have heard 161 00:06:36,090 --> 00:06:33,700 something about already and but there 162 00:06:37,830 --> 00:06:36,100 still it's still something it's not 163 00:06:40,140 --> 00:06:37,840 universally accepted and there's several 164 00:06:42,150 --> 00:06:40,150 reasons for that it has an 165 00:06:43,540 --> 00:06:42,160 unconventional high heterogeneity of the 166 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:43,550 data so 167 00:06:48,550 --> 00:06:46,970 some might believe that publication bias 168 00:06:51,100 --> 00:06:48,560 and other selection mechanisms aren't 169 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:51,110 had and even more important that's an 170 00:06:56,290 --> 00:06:53,289 astonishing lack of direct replication 171 00:06:57,999 --> 00:06:56,300 attempts so the most prominent example 172 00:07:01,180 --> 00:06:58,009 is to peer studied that we already heard 173 00:07:03,059 --> 00:07:01,190 of and there was a replication attempt 174 00:07:06,249 --> 00:07:03,069 of the pair study in Germany right away 175 00:07:07,689 --> 00:07:06,259 at the ganske BJP's if you gain a degree 176 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:07,699 at Freiburg and Center for behavioral 177 00:07:12,790 --> 00:07:10,250 medicine at Giessen and they only had 178 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:12,800 rather disappointing results they 179 00:07:19,059 --> 00:07:15,370 couldn't replicate the results at all 180 00:07:22,059 --> 00:07:19,069 non significant result and this led some 181 00:07:23,950 --> 00:07:22,069 to believe that Michael BK does indeed 182 00:07:25,719 --> 00:07:23,960 exist but does not seem to be a very 183 00:07:29,649 --> 00:07:25,729 robust effect that it cannot be 184 00:07:31,870 --> 00:07:29,659 replicated and that's a different 185 00:07:33,790 --> 00:07:31,880 there's a second problem from from my 186 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:33,800 personal point of view and that is that 187 00:07:37,439 --> 00:07:35,090 there's no consideration of the 188 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:37,449 subconscious content in most of the 189 00:07:43,749 --> 00:07:40,130 designs so usually designs are very 190 00:07:45,189 --> 00:07:43,759 explicit it's usually something like try 191 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:45,199 to get the RNG to behave in a certain 192 00:07:51,399 --> 00:07:49,250 way and has been shown is that 193 00:07:54,370 --> 00:07:51,409 effortless intention usually gets better 194 00:07:58,180 --> 00:07:54,380 result and the crucial difference might 195 00:08:00,850 --> 00:07:58,190 be the intentionality itself so we might 196 00:08:02,649 --> 00:08:00,860 get better micro PK effects when the 197 00:08:05,170 --> 00:08:02,659 participants have a connection with the 198 00:08:07,570 --> 00:08:05,180 outcome on a deeply rooted or implicit 199 00:08:09,879 --> 00:08:07,580 level and that's where we decided to 200 00:08:11,950 --> 00:08:09,889 create such an experiment where the 201 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:11,960 outcome matters to the participant on an 202 00:08:16,629 --> 00:08:14,090 implicit level and here is where the 203 00:08:17,980 --> 00:08:16,639 smokers come into play so we tried we 204 00:08:19,749 --> 00:08:17,990 used the desire for cigarettes and 205 00:08:23,439 --> 00:08:19,759 smokers as our unconsciously driven 206 00:08:26,290 --> 00:08:23,449 state and the idea of the experiment was 207 00:08:29,409 --> 00:08:26,300 that we have participants with a 208 00:08:30,730 --> 00:08:29,419 specific mental idea to what cigarettes 209 00:08:33,819 --> 00:08:30,740 that is the need for cigarettes or a 210 00:08:36,699 --> 00:08:33,829 lack of cigarettes that are connected by 211 00:08:38,769 --> 00:08:36,709 the quantum world to a specific to the 212 00:08:41,829 --> 00:08:38,779 corresponding physical events that is 213 00:08:43,690 --> 00:08:41,839 stimuli that address this need and the 214 00:08:45,630 --> 00:08:43,700 quantum was represented by quantum based 215 00:08:47,560 --> 00:08:45,640 random number generator and that 216 00:08:50,050 --> 00:08:47,570 basically conducts a double slit 217 00:08:53,680 --> 00:08:50,060 experiment and the slits are connected 218 00:08:54,710 --> 00:08:53,690 to output to to outputting either 0 or 1 219 00:08:57,710 --> 00:08:54,720 and 220 00:08:59,780 --> 00:08:57,720 turn displaying either a neutral image 221 00:09:02,269 --> 00:08:59,790 or a image of hazard to be smoking a 222 00:09:06,199 --> 00:09:02,279 cigarette image so I was our design 223 00:09:08,300 --> 00:09:06,209 protested 254 participants and we 224 00:09:10,670 --> 00:09:08,310 hypothesized that the specific way the 225 00:09:12,379 --> 00:09:10,680 mind is set to what cigarettes within 226 00:09:13,999 --> 00:09:12,389 the smokers would lead to a deviation in 227 00:09:16,610 --> 00:09:14,009 Shawn's cigarette related stimuli and 228 00:09:20,780 --> 00:09:16,620 from chance and we wouldn't expect such 229 00:09:22,369 --> 00:09:20,790 a deviation with non-smokers yeah at 230 00:09:24,100 --> 00:09:22,379 this point I'd like to lose a few words 231 00:09:26,449 --> 00:09:24,110 about the statistical approach we used 232 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:26,459 so that you can understand results we 233 00:09:33,910 --> 00:09:31,050 used two Bayesian analysis design and 234 00:09:36,199 --> 00:09:33,920 [Music] 235 00:09:38,569 --> 00:09:36,209 Bayesian statistics works by updating 236 00:09:40,189 --> 00:09:38,579 your beliefs given new data and by 237 00:09:41,059 --> 00:09:40,199 pitting the likelihoods for the null 238 00:09:43,249 --> 00:09:41,069 hypothesis and the alternative 239 00:09:49,069 --> 00:09:43,259 hypothesis against each other 240 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:49,079 so usually you you pre-specify stopping 241 00:09:52,220 --> 00:09:50,490 criterion for the quality of the 242 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:52,230 evidence and you add data until this 243 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:53,970 criterion is met so it's a sequential 244 00:09:58,100 --> 00:09:56,490 design and the evidence is measured with 245 00:10:00,139 --> 00:09:58,110 the base factor that's just a 246 00:10:02,389 --> 00:10:00,149 relationship of the probabilities so 247 00:10:03,949 --> 00:10:02,399 base factor of one means there's no 248 00:10:06,139 --> 00:10:03,959 evidence towards either direction and 249 00:10:08,179 --> 00:10:06,149 three is moderate evidence and we use 250 00:10:10,999 --> 00:10:08,189 the base factor of 10 which means strong 251 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:11,009 evidence so I'll make it exciting and 252 00:10:17,809 --> 00:10:15,170 start with the non-smokers no no 253 00:10:20,689 --> 00:10:17,819 deviation from chance was was seen here 254 00:10:23,929 --> 00:10:20,699 you can see the base factor is going 255 00:10:26,990 --> 00:10:23,939 below one so individual in the direction 256 00:10:28,759 --> 00:10:27,000 of the null hypothesis and yeah we have 257 00:10:32,259 --> 00:10:28,769 moderate evidence for the null 258 00:10:34,490 --> 00:10:32,269 hypothesis and this is what we expected 259 00:10:36,949 --> 00:10:34,500 with a smokers on the other hand they 260 00:10:39,259 --> 00:10:36,959 experienced less cigarette pictures and 261 00:10:41,869 --> 00:10:39,269 in non-smokers and if we look at the 262 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:41,879 base factor it shows a highly 263 00:10:46,429 --> 00:10:44,370 significant result so the base factor 264 00:10:49,129 --> 00:10:46,439 was 66 in the end and this means this 265 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:49,139 result is 66 times more likely to be 266 00:10:53,809 --> 00:10:50,490 obtained under the alternative 267 00:10:55,879 --> 00:10:53,819 hypothesis then I already know so the 268 00:10:58,009 --> 00:10:55,889 amount amount of pictures was different 269 00:10:59,360 --> 00:10:58,019 from chance and yeah we were pretty 270 00:11:02,059 --> 00:10:59,370 excited at this point as you can imagine 271 00:11:04,189 --> 00:11:02,069 it worked and we decided to do a 272 00:11:06,049 --> 00:11:04,199 replication of this experiment we 273 00:11:08,180 --> 00:11:06,059 pre-registered this replication 274 00:11:10,220 --> 00:11:08,190 everything was the same we used to 275 00:11:12,020 --> 00:11:10,230 I'd approach this time we had a clear 276 00:11:13,940 --> 00:11:12,030 prediction smokers see less than chance 277 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:13,950 cigarette pictures we tested four 278 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:17,010 hundred new participants and yeah I'm 279 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:18,090 going to show you the results of the 280 00:11:23,420 --> 00:11:20,490 second study so this is the non-smokers 281 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:23,430 again not a huge surprise again the in 282 00:11:29,660 --> 00:11:25,730 the direction of the null hypothesis and 283 00:11:33,650 --> 00:11:29,670 now to watch the smokers so this time 284 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:33,660 the smokers showed no deviation from 285 00:11:38,150 --> 00:11:36,210 chance you can see the effect was 286 00:11:39,650 --> 00:11:38,160 present at first so the base vector goes 287 00:11:42,470 --> 00:11:39,660 up to what standard first and then 288 00:11:45,260 --> 00:11:42,480 quickly vanished and even went to into 289 00:11:48,830 --> 00:11:45,270 the other direction yeah so we were 290 00:11:51,740 --> 00:11:48,840 pretty bummed out by this result we 291 00:11:54,530 --> 00:11:51,750 couldn't have we didn't get a replicable 292 00:11:57,290 --> 00:11:54,540 effect replicable effect but we still 293 00:11:59,330 --> 00:11:57,300 had the idea this is this feeling that 294 00:12:02,150 --> 00:11:59,340 the smokers and the non-smokers data was 295 00:12:04,490 --> 00:12:02,160 somehow different so what we did next is 296 00:12:08,150 --> 00:12:04,500 we looked at the data of both studies 297 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:08,160 combined and what you can see here on 298 00:12:12,740 --> 00:12:10,410 the left is the smokers sample and 299 00:12:14,690 --> 00:12:12,750 there's a remarkable change in effect 300 00:12:18,590 --> 00:12:14,700 over the course of the time that means 301 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:18,600 the data that was added so the base 302 00:12:25,130 --> 00:12:21,810 factor was in the middle of the of both 303 00:12:27,410 --> 00:12:25,140 studies need close to 600 which is 304 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:27,420 really really uncommon right and there 305 00:12:31,070 --> 00:12:29,370 are no such change in effect could be 306 00:12:33,740 --> 00:12:31,080 seen with the non-smokers and no such 307 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:33,750 change could be seen with the simulation 308 00:12:40,940 --> 00:12:39,090 as well so could there be a micro PK 309 00:12:45,830 --> 00:12:40,950 effect despite this lack of replication 310 00:12:48,140 --> 00:12:45,840 and could could we maybe further examine 311 00:12:49,910 --> 00:12:48,150 this decline effect we already heard 312 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:49,920 something about the decline effect and 313 00:12:53,900 --> 00:12:51,450 about the importance of novelty and 314 00:12:55,460 --> 00:12:53,910 there's a theory that supports this idea 315 00:12:58,910 --> 00:12:55,470 it's the model of pragmatic information 316 00:13:01,010 --> 00:12:58,920 by from Lookadoo but still we were 317 00:13:05,570 --> 00:13:01,020 asking ourselves why would this happen 318 00:13:10,100 --> 00:13:05,580 and yeah let me walk you through our our 319 00:13:12,950 --> 00:13:10,110 thoughts to about this so we'll start 320 00:13:14,630 --> 00:13:12,960 with hopefully with a well-designed 321 00:13:16,670 --> 00:13:14,640 micro PK study that leads to the 322 00:13:19,250 --> 00:13:16,680 emergence of a micro PK effect in the 323 00:13:21,260 --> 00:13:19,260 form of a deviation from chance and this 324 00:13:21,810 --> 00:13:21,270 deviation should violate the no signal 325 00:13:24,210 --> 00:13:21,820 theory 326 00:13:26,850 --> 00:13:24,220 in quantum mechanics since information 327 00:13:28,350 --> 00:13:26,860 is basically created out of nothing so 328 00:13:30,540 --> 00:13:28,360 where there should be randomness and 329 00:13:31,890 --> 00:13:30,550 randomness means no information there 330 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:31,900 isn't random as anymore and therefore 331 00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:33,370 there's information and this is a 332 00:13:38,970 --> 00:13:35,980 problem for the second law of 333 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:38,980 thermodynamics this that says entropy 334 00:13:42,560 --> 00:13:41,530 must always increase and order cannot 335 00:13:44,970 --> 00:13:42,570 come out of chaos 336 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:44,980 so what could happen at this point is 337 00:13:50,730 --> 00:13:47,530 that a counter effect is setting in to 338 00:13:52,230 --> 00:13:50,740 equalize this micro PK effect and to 339 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:52,240 make sure the information is lost again 340 00:13:56,700 --> 00:13:54,850 and the world is back in order and as 341 00:13:58,670 --> 00:13:56,710 soon as this happens everything can 342 00:14:01,320 --> 00:13:58,680 start over again 343 00:14:03,030 --> 00:14:01,330 so with this idea there's still a 344 00:14:04,560 --> 00:14:03,040 problem and that's what's the difference 345 00:14:08,430 --> 00:14:04,570 between a real not effect and the 346 00:14:10,620 --> 00:14:08,440 decline effect and yeah we had an idea 347 00:14:12,090 --> 00:14:10,630 to what this as well and that is that 348 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:12,100 effect and count effect are in a 349 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:15,850 systematic interplay so once the effect 350 00:14:19,470 --> 00:14:17,170 has been neutralized the entropic 351 00:14:21,030 --> 00:14:19,480 counter force also decreases allowing 352 00:14:22,830 --> 00:14:21,040 the effect to reappear with a lowered 353 00:14:24,660 --> 00:14:22,840 effect than initially shown and so on 354 00:14:26,970 --> 00:14:24,670 and this interplay should lead to a 355 00:14:28,710 --> 00:14:26,980 temporal change in effect comparable to 356 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:28,720 a damped harmonic oscillation that's the 357 00:14:32,850 --> 00:14:30,490 blue line that you can see here so 358 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:32,860 effect and count effect are in are in a 359 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:35,770 systemic interplay so was our data 360 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:41,130 oscillatory and that's our data as 361 00:14:47,250 --> 00:14:45,610 that's the z-scores the community of 362 00:14:48,780 --> 00:14:47,260 z-scores of our data that's pretty 363 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:48,790 similar to the base factor it's just 364 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:50,770 upside down because the effect was 365 00:14:56,970 --> 00:14:52,930 negative this on less less cigarette 366 00:14:58,740 --> 00:14:56,980 pictures and we match this data to a 367 00:15:01,890 --> 00:14:58,750 suitable damped harmonic oscillation 368 00:15:03,900 --> 00:15:01,900 that's the red line and this is the 369 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:03,910 formula and you all need to remember 370 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:09,970 this okay and if you continue to look at 371 00:15:13,470 --> 00:15:11,650 the oscillation you can derive a 372 00:15:16,290 --> 00:15:13,480 prediction about the size of the future 373 00:15:18,930 --> 00:15:16,300 data and that's what we did and we 374 00:15:20,220 --> 00:15:18,940 decided to do yet another study but this 375 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:20,230 time we wouldn't look at a number of 376 00:15:24,570 --> 00:15:21,970 pictures but if the temporal change of 377 00:15:26,610 --> 00:15:24,580 the effect follows our prediction and we 378 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:26,620 again pre-read pre-registered this study 379 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:30,370 and tested to hundreds more smokers yeah 380 00:15:35,679 --> 00:15:31,970 that's a prediction and 381 00:15:38,529 --> 00:15:35,689 that's our data so as you can see it's 382 00:15:41,829 --> 00:15:38,539 not a perfect fit it's I think it's a 383 00:15:44,019 --> 00:15:41,839 rather good fit so as predicted the 384 00:15:45,789 --> 00:15:44,029 effect gets weaker again this means the 385 00:15:48,159 --> 00:15:45,799 line goes up and then get strong again 386 00:15:50,169 --> 00:15:48,169 the line goes down again yeah but it's 387 00:15:53,229 --> 00:15:50,179 hard to tell just by looking at it 388 00:15:54,369 --> 00:15:53,239 so I conducted some simulations to 389 00:15:57,879 --> 00:15:54,379 compare the state to do 390 00:16:01,659 --> 00:15:57,889 that's just 33 and also the first 10 of 391 00:16:03,759 --> 00:16:01,669 1000 simulations and yeah as you can see 392 00:16:06,009 --> 00:16:03,769 already here is that our prediction is 393 00:16:07,839 --> 00:16:06,019 not very distinguishable so it's 394 00:16:09,639 --> 00:16:07,849 basically just the horizontal line with 395 00:16:11,739 --> 00:16:09,649 a very small amplitude and that's 396 00:16:14,319 --> 00:16:11,749 something that's very easy for the 397 00:16:17,859 --> 00:16:14,329 random data to follow and yeah that's 398 00:16:23,619 --> 00:16:17,869 what we see when we look certificate the 399 00:16:26,289 --> 00:16:23,629 other data and that means 41.5% of the 400 00:16:29,379 --> 00:16:26,299 simulations have a better area under 401 00:16:32,889 --> 00:16:29,389 curve than our experimental data which 402 00:16:35,049 --> 00:16:32,899 is an indicator for the fit but if you 403 00:16:38,769 --> 00:16:35,059 look at the endpoint and analysis only 404 00:16:41,489 --> 00:16:38,779 3.1 percent had a better prediction so 405 00:16:43,809 --> 00:16:41,499 it's still kind of an success and I'm 406 00:16:46,929 --> 00:16:43,819 I'm still in the middle of analyzing 407 00:16:50,169 --> 00:16:46,939 this so as soon as I'm finished I'll 408 00:16:55,419 --> 00:16:50,179 publish it probably okay the last thing 409 00:16:58,839 --> 00:16:55,429 I want to do to show you is the final 410 00:17:01,239 --> 00:16:58,849 patient sequential analysis of all 500 411 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:01,249 smokers and this remarkable change in 412 00:17:06,639 --> 00:17:04,850 effect and I wanted to know if this 413 00:17:11,379 --> 00:17:06,649 could be just a random fluctuation if 414 00:17:13,749 --> 00:17:11,389 this happens all by itself and so I once 415 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:13,759 more conducted some simulations and I 416 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:16,730 actually to take a look and to try to 417 00:17:21,789 --> 00:17:19,850 see if the lines go above 100 it's just 418 00:17:26,769 --> 00:17:21,799 a real rapid slide show just to get a 419 00:17:29,919 --> 00:17:26,779 feel of okay rapid slideshow didn't work 420 00:17:32,009 --> 00:17:29,929 so this is this is just one of those 100 421 00:17:34,690 --> 00:17:32,019 simulations it's the most extreme one 422 00:17:38,049 --> 00:17:34,700 and as you can see the base vector 423 00:17:41,590 --> 00:17:38,059 barely touches the 30 and yeah never 424 00:17:44,630 --> 00:17:41,600 once did we experience base vector close 425 00:17:46,190 --> 00:17:44,640 to 600 so that makes me pretty confident 426 00:17:52,730 --> 00:17:46,200 that what we found is really truly 427 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:52,740 special okay so to sum up we in a first 428 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:55,170 study we found a micro PK effect that 429 00:17:59,480 --> 00:17:56,610 can be understood as a particular 430 00:18:01,340 --> 00:17:59,490 mindset a lack of cigarettes but found 431 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:01,350 through the quantum world its 432 00:18:06,610 --> 00:18:02,970 correspondence in the physical world 433 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:06,620 that means fewer secret pictures 434 00:18:11,390 --> 00:18:09,450 secondly if measurement takes place 435 00:18:14,060 --> 00:18:11,400 through conscious processing we should 436 00:18:16,220 --> 00:18:14,070 use deeply-rooted subconsciously active 437 00:18:19,700 --> 00:18:16,230 independent variables from my point of 438 00:18:22,670 --> 00:18:19,710 view and finally the problems 439 00:18:24,410 --> 00:18:22,680 replicating micro PK can be understood 440 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:24,420 as an entropic counter effect that 441 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:26,010 together with the effect should form a 442 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:28,730 pattern of damned harmonic oscillation 443 00:18:47,890 --> 00:18:40,930 thank you and we have some time for 444 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:47,900 questions thank you for a very nice talk 445 00:18:53,950 --> 00:18:50,570 every time I see oscillations I think of 446 00:18:55,900 --> 00:18:53,960 the possibility of correlating with Geo 447 00:18:59,440 --> 00:18:55,910 cosmic rhythms so I wonder if you'd 448 00:19:00,700 --> 00:18:59,450 considered that as a possible influence 449 00:19:03,310 --> 00:19:00,710 on your results 450 00:19:05,350 --> 00:19:03,320 we haven't no we have not but yeah it's 451 00:19:08,710 --> 00:19:05,360 a good idea good try Thanks 452 00:19:12,430 --> 00:19:08,720 I have a three questions but I'm gonna 453 00:19:15,460 --> 00:19:12,440 limited to two the first question in 454 00:19:18,220 --> 00:19:15,470 regards the it studies conducted by the 455 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:18,230 German institutions and you know the 456 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:21,050 Monte Carlo iterations what do you think 457 00:19:26,290 --> 00:19:23,690 that was like a hell Mary passed to try 458 00:19:28,330 --> 00:19:26,300 and find some structure in the data and 459 00:19:31,150 --> 00:19:28,340 then actually the more important 460 00:19:32,980 --> 00:19:31,160 question I have for you is regarding the 461 00:19:35,049 --> 00:19:32,990 theory of the subconscious mind versus 462 00:19:37,919 --> 00:19:35,059 the conscious mind like the conscious 463 00:19:40,990 --> 00:19:37,929 mind being that it has a kind of a 464 00:19:42,940 --> 00:19:41,000 method of a method of collapsing reality 465 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:42,950 and being specific and being very like 466 00:19:47,290 --> 00:19:45,890 directed and so you know and the 467 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:47,300 subconscious mind on the other hand 468 00:19:51,850 --> 00:19:49,570 isn't aware of the conscious Minds 469 00:19:53,260 --> 00:19:51,860 impressions of reality are you 470 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:53,270 suggesting that the subconscious mind 471 00:19:58,830 --> 00:19:55,970 when people shut it their conscious mind 472 00:20:01,480 --> 00:19:58,840 down effects can be easier to obtain 473 00:20:03,430 --> 00:20:01,490 this is certainly a possibility so 474 00:20:05,980 --> 00:20:03,440 there's one theory it's called the 475 00:20:11,010 --> 00:20:05,990 extended Everett concept for example and 476 00:20:13,930 --> 00:20:11,020 it says that in in in states where the 477 00:20:15,430 --> 00:20:13,940 conscious conscious mind is not as 478 00:20:16,390 --> 00:20:15,440 active for example when you're sleeping 479 00:20:18,669 --> 00:20:16,400 when you're dreaming when you're 480 00:20:21,340 --> 00:20:18,679 meditating that you have better access 481 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:21,350 to this different quantum possibilities 482 00:20:26,799 --> 00:20:23,570 and quantum information and that you can 483 00:20:33,250 --> 00:20:26,809 try and learn how to use to extract this 484 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:36,909 so this is really interesting could you 485 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:40,210 talk a little bit more about entropy and 486 00:20:47,140 --> 00:20:44,410 how this could possibly be related to 487 00:20:49,930 --> 00:20:47,150 the conscious mind in the subconscious 488 00:20:53,289 --> 00:20:49,940 mind I'm thinking about some of Ed Mays 489 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:53,299 research that tries to look at the way 490 00:20:57,580 --> 00:20:54,770 entropy might be related to 491 00:20:59,230 --> 00:20:57,590 consciousness and awareness and just 492 00:21:02,650 --> 00:20:59,240 curious if you could talk about that a 493 00:21:05,409 --> 00:21:02,660 little bit more so I looked at the book 494 00:21:08,860 --> 00:21:05,419 of at may earlier and saw that he wrote 495 00:21:10,419 --> 00:21:08,870 something about entropy and I'm planning 496 00:21:12,549 --> 00:21:10,429 to buy the book and read it but I'm not 497 00:21:18,340 --> 00:21:12,559 sure I'm not familiar with what he but 498 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:18,350 what he had written so the the idea that 499 00:21:22,650 --> 00:21:20,450 entropy is the is a force that's 500 00:21:25,270 --> 00:21:22,660 responsible for the decline effect as 501 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:25,280 now from my point of view as nothing so 502 00:21:33,669 --> 00:21:27,890 much to do with consciousness but with 503 00:21:35,770 --> 00:21:33,679 the with the violation of the second law 504 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:35,780 of thermodynamics in a sense that you 505 00:21:45,310 --> 00:21:37,250 create information where information 506 00:21:48,700 --> 00:21:45,320 shouldn't be created thank you so I'm 507 00:21:51,820 --> 00:21:48,710 wondering if instead of trying to fit a 508 00:21:54,310 --> 00:21:51,830 very specific curve through the results 509 00:21:56,919 --> 00:21:54,320 if you've considered looking at a power 510 00:21:58,060 --> 00:21:56,929 spectrum of it of some sort and making 511 00:22:00,640 --> 00:21:58,070 predictions about where you're gonna 512 00:22:03,250 --> 00:22:00,650 find peaks in that yeah it's definitely 513 00:22:05,140 --> 00:22:03,260 definitely one of the possibilities so 514 00:22:07,570 --> 00:22:05,150 as I was saying earlier I'm still right 515 00:22:08,169 --> 00:22:07,580 in the middle of analyzing the last part 516 00:22:10,810 --> 00:22:08,179 of data 517 00:22:12,730 --> 00:22:10,820 I've already only looked at the area 518 00:22:14,530 --> 00:22:12,740 under curve and and at some points but 519 00:22:21,850 --> 00:22:14,540 we wanted to look at turning points as 520 00:22:28,700 --> 00:22:26,779 I'd like to criticize this notion which 521 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:28,710 as far as I can tell is a complete 522 00:22:38,870 --> 00:22:33,090 fallacy that micro pique somehow creates 523 00:22:41,419 --> 00:22:38,880 information big because the entropy 524 00:22:44,539 --> 00:22:41,429 generated by the human participant 525 00:22:47,810 --> 00:22:44,549 simply by sitting there metabolizing and 526 00:22:51,860 --> 00:22:47,820 having a working brain is many orders of 527 00:22:55,580 --> 00:22:51,870 magnitude larger than the entropy 528 00:22:59,269 --> 00:22:55,590 decrease in the data stream where you're 529 00:23:01,580 --> 00:22:59,279 looking for PK effects I've been sitting 530 00:23:03,740 --> 00:23:01,590 here creating highly organized notes on 531 00:23:07,010 --> 00:23:03,750 a piece of paper and that information 532 00:23:10,519 --> 00:23:07,020 isn't appearing out of nowhere it's it's 533 00:23:14,269 --> 00:23:10,529 powered by the entropy increase in my 534 00:23:17,330 --> 00:23:14,279 own muscles and physical nutrients 535 00:23:22,010 --> 00:23:17,340 there's no reason to see PK as anything 536 00:23:23,810 --> 00:23:22,020 different thank you when you're looking 537 00:23:25,639 --> 00:23:23,820 at the decline effect the way you're 538 00:23:27,350 --> 00:23:25,649 doing in the ways traditionally done is 539 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:27,360 people do it sequentially they do an 540 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:30,690 experiment then they repeat it but what 541 00:23:36,100 --> 00:23:33,570 do you think would happen if you did two 542 00:23:38,659 --> 00:23:36,110 three four or five experiments 543 00:23:42,919 --> 00:23:38,669 simultaneously where you're recruiting 544 00:23:45,860 --> 00:23:42,929 to each experiment at the same time but 545 00:23:48,740 --> 00:23:45,870 in a predetermined fashion keeping the 546 00:23:52,250 --> 00:23:48,750 data separate so you're actually doing 547 00:23:55,310 --> 00:23:52,260 the replication at the same time do you 548 00:24:00,320 --> 00:23:55,320 think what do you think you would get so 549 00:24:04,450 --> 00:24:00,330 I my my opinion towards that is that 550 00:24:06,769 --> 00:24:04,460 it's important that important is the 551 00:24:10,940 --> 00:24:06,779 it's the timeframe in which you look at 552 00:24:17,060 --> 00:24:10,950 the data so responsible for this for 553 00:24:19,070 --> 00:24:17,070 this decline effect is the the extent to 554 00:24:21,919 --> 00:24:19,080 which you get a confirmation of your 555 00:24:23,149 --> 00:24:21,929 effect so you're saying when you look at 556 00:24:28,490 --> 00:24:23,159 the data suppose you did five 557 00:24:31,909 --> 00:24:28,500 experiments and had five groups annal in 558 00:24:33,049 --> 00:24:31,919 time do you think you'd get it too in 559 00:24:34,460 --> 00:24:33,059 other words would this be a way around 560 00:24:36,350 --> 00:24:34,470 the decline effect 561 00:24:40,070 --> 00:24:36,360 because you're doing the experiment 562 00:24:43,879 --> 00:24:40,080 simultaneously five replications and you 563 00:24:46,070 --> 00:24:43,889 analyze the data simultaneously by five 564 00:24:49,999 --> 00:24:46,080 different groups at the same time would 565 00:24:52,100 --> 00:24:50,009 that be a way around it I'm just like 566 00:24:54,919 --> 00:24:52,110 you I hear you I think it's a good idea 567 00:24:59,149 --> 00:24:54,929 so maybe you could trick you could trick 568 00:25:01,610 --> 00:24:59,159 the you could trick it somehow if you if 569 00:25:03,740 --> 00:25:01,620 the novelty is is therefore for every 570 00:25:05,690 --> 00:25:03,750 research group if every research group 571 00:25:07,789 --> 00:25:05,700 is doing the same experiment for the 572 00:25:10,100 --> 00:25:07,799 first time yeah yeah then you might get 573 00:25:14,149 --> 00:25:10,110 around it I'm not sure yeah some that 574 00:25:16,050 --> 00:25:14,159 should be try yeah thank you all right